Spring runoff across most of Saskatchewan is expected to be near to below normal in 2026, according to the first 2026 outlook released by the provincial Water Security Agency on Thursday.
The driest conditions are forecast for the southwest, from Kindersley to Assiniboia, where runoff is expected to be well below normal. In contrast, eastern Saskatchewan near Yorkton is projected to see above-normal runoff this spring.
The outlook reflects dry conditions heading into winter after most of the province received below-average precipitation in fall 2025. Snowfall this winter has generally been near normal across Saskatchewan, although north and west-central areas have received above-normal precipitation. Areas along the southern Manitoba border, meanwhile, have seen less than normal winter moisture, the outlook said.
Water supplies are being supported by strong reservoir conditions in much of southern Saskatchewan. Most major reservoirs, including Lake Diefenbaker and those in the Qu’Appelle River system, are currently at or above normal levels and are expected to remain near normal after spring runoff.
One bright spot for water supply is the mountain snowpack in Alberta, which feeds the Saskatchewan River Basin. That snowpack is well above normal, raising expectations for above-normal snowmelt runoff into Lake Diefenbaker during May and June if those conditions hold.
However, some problem areas remain. McDougald and Harris reservoirs in southwestern Saskatchewan are below normal, and without improved conditions, reservoirs in the Bigstick Basin could stay low through the year. Reindeer Lake in the north may also remain below normal, while drier conditions are expected to reduce flows and lake levels in the Churchill River Basin.
The agency said it will continue monitoring conditions closely, particularly snowpack developments in southern Alberta.
